China-Taiwan Conflict Risk Dashboard
Strategic Risk Assessment - August 2025
Overall Risk
High
Last Updated: August 6, 2025
Executive Summary
Risk Level
High and Increasing
Critical Timeframe
2025-2027
Most Likely Scenario
Limited conflict or blockade (60% probability)
Invasion Probability
35% near-term, higher 2027+
Risk Assessment Matrix
High Risk (20-25)
Medium-High Risk (12-19)
Low Risk (1-11)
Scenario Analysis
35% Probability
Limited conflict or blockade scenario
Key Triggers
- Taiwan formal independence declaration
- Major US policy shift to strategic clarity
- Provocative high-level US visits to Taiwan
- China economic crisis requiring distraction
Likely Actions
- Naval quarantine/blockade of Taiwan
- Seizure of offshore islands (Kinmen, Matsu)
- Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure
- Gray zone escalation
60% Probability
Xi Jinping's timeline window for reunification
Key Triggers
- PLA readiness achieved by 2027 target
- US military distraction elsewhere
- Perceived window of opportunity
- Xi's legacy considerations
Likely Actions
- Full-scale amphibious invasion
- Coordinated air-sea-land campaign
- Preemptive strikes on US bases
- Economic coercion campaign
Variable Probability
US semiconductor independence reduces Taiwan's strategic value
Key Triggers
- Reduced US dependency on Taiwan chips
- Demographic changes in Taiwan
- Generational leadership changes
- New military technologies
Likely Actions
- Renewed diplomatic pressure
- Economic integration strategies
- Long-term coercion campaign
- Technological leapfrog strategies
Escalation Ladder
Current Assessment: Level 2 - Gray Zone Escalation
2
Gray Zone Escalation
Increased coercive activities below war threshold
High (2025)3
Quarantine/Blockade
Maritime quarantine or partial blockade of Taiwan
Medium-High (2025-2027)4
Limited Military Action
Seizure of offshore islands or limited strikes
Medium (2026-2027)5
Full-Scale Invasion
Amphibious assault on Taiwan main island
Lower but growing (2027+)1
Status Quo
Current situation with regular gray zone activities
OngoingKey Indicators Dashboard
PLA Exercise Tempo
High
Taiwan Independence Rhetoric
Medium
US Policy Shifts
Medium
Xi Timeline Pressure
High
China Economic Crisis
Medium-High
Risk Timeline (2025-2030)
