🔴 LIVE: BUDGET DAY 2025/2026
Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo presents at 1:30 PM Trinidad Time (6:30 PM BST)
T-06:30:00
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Nominal GDP (2025E)
$26.47B USD
Real GDP Growth (2025E)
+2.4%
Inflation Rate (2025E)
1.3%
Policy Rate (CBTT)
3.5%
FX Reserves (Aug 2025)
$4.61B USD
S&P Rating
BBB- (Negative)
OIL MARKET IMPACT
WTI Crude (Oct 10)
$58.90 (-4.24%)
Brent Crude (Oct 10)
$62.73 (-3.82%)
Budget Impact
SEVERE REVENUE PRESSURE
vs Budget Assumption
$58.90 vs ~$77.80
BUDGET EXPECTATIONS TODAY
10% Public Service Salary Increase HIGH PRIORITY
Estimated Cost: ~$7 billion additional • Challenging given fiscal constraints
50,000+ Jobs Creation CRITICAL
Multi-billion investment required • Depends on diversification success
Couva Children's Hospital HIGH PRIORITY
$10M for completion • Ready for opening
Student Laptop Programme MEDIUM
$200-400M estimated • More achievable, already started
BREAKING NEWS & ALERTS
LIVE
BUDGET 2025/2026 PRESENTATION TODAY AT 1:30 PM TRINIDAD TIME (6:30 PM BST)
ALERT
OIL PRICES CRASH TO $58.90 WTI - BUDGET REVENUE UNDER PRESSURE
UPDATE
DRAGON GAS OFAC LICENCE GRANTED - ENERGY SECTOR BOOST POTENTIAL
FISCAL CHALLENGES
Expected Budget Size
$60B+ TTD
Deficit Projection
$8-12B Range
HSF Available
$260M USD
Import Cover
6.6 Months
GDP PERFORMANCE & PROJECTIONS
Nominal GDP 2025 (IMF)
$26.47B USD
Real GDP Growth 2025E
+2.4%
Population (IMF)
1.435M
GDP Per Capita
$18,440 USD
GROWTH SCENARIOS - BUDGET IMPACT
Conservative Scenario: 1.8%
Limited energy recovery, modest diversification
Optimistic Scenario: 3.2%
Dragon gas success, major infrastructure investment
SECTORAL PERFORMANCE
Energy Sector
Declining
Non-Energy Sector
Recovering
Manufacturing
Stable
Services
Growing
PRICE STABILITY & MONETARY POLICY
Inflation Rate 2025E (IMF)
1.3%
CBTT Policy Rate
3.5%
Repo Rate
3.5%
Inflation Target
1-3%
MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK
Current Stance
Accommodative policy maintained to support growth
Budget Impact
Fiscal expansion may influence monetary policy stance
GOVERNMENT FINANCES - BUDGET DAY
Expected Budget Size
$60B+ TTD
Deficit Projection
$8-12B Range
HSF Total Fund
$6.09B USD
HSF Available
$260M USD
DEFICIT SCENARIOS
Baseline: $9.5B Deficit
Current policies, modest salary increases
High Spending: $15.0B Deficit
Full manifesto implementation
REVENUE CHALLENGES
Property Tax Status
SCRAPPED
TTRA Status
CANCELLED
Oil Price Impact
SEVERE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE & RESERVES
FX Reserves (Aug 2025)
$4.61B USD
Import Cover
6.6 Months
Reserve Status
CRITICAL LEVEL
FX Availability
LIMITED
TRADE PERFORMANCE
Trade Balance
Energy Dependent
Export Composition
80%+ Energy
Diversification
IN PROGRESS
CREDIT RATING
S&P Rating
BBB-
Outlook
NEGATIVE
Last Review
25 SEP 2025
Risk Window
6-24 MONTHS
INTEREST RATES & BANKING
CBTT Policy Rate
3.5%
Prime Lending Rate
7.0-9.0%
Deposit Rates
0.5-2.5%
BANKING SECTOR HEALTH
Banking System
STABLE
Liquidity
ADEQUATE
Credit Growth
MODERATE
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
90-Day Treasury
1.75%
Government Bonds
4.5-6.5%
Borrowing Needs
INCREASING
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION
Oil Production
~54,000 bpd
Peak Production
278,000 bpd
Natural Gas
DECLINING
Petrotrin Status
REVIVAL PLANS
ENERGY PRICES - BUDGET IMPACT
WTI Crude (Oct 10)
$58.90 (-4.24%)
Brent Crude (Oct 10)
$62.73 (-3.82%)
Budget Assumption
~$77.80 WTI
Revenue Impact
SEVERELY NEGATIVE
DRAGON GAS DEVELOPMENT
OFAC Licence
GRANTED (Oct 8)
Venezuela Partnership
IN DISCUSSIONS
Production Potential
SIGNIFICANT
Timeline
2026-2027
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
GDP Growth 2025E
+2.4%
GDP Growth 2026F
1.8-3.2%
Inflation 2025E
1.3%
Inflation 2026F
2.0-3.5%
BUDGET IMPACT SCENARIOS
Conservative Budget Impact
Limited fiscal stimulus, focus on fiscal consolidation
Expansionary Budget Impact
Major spending increases, higher deficits, growth stimulus
RISK FACTORS
Oil Price Volatility
HIGH RISK
Credit Rating
DOWNGRADE RISK
FX Reserves
CRITICAL LEVEL
Fiscal Sustainability
CHALLENGED