WAR SCENARIO PROBABILITIES
ELEVATED RISK
Accidental Confrontation
Cyber Warfare: 35%
Confrontation: 25%
Blockade: 15%
Diplomacy: 25%
MILITARY CAPABILITY EXPANSION
Nuclear Arsenal
600500 → 600 → 1000+ warheads
MIRV capability deployed
Launch-on-warning posture
Naval Forces
Missile Systems
1,500DF-41: 15,000km range
10 MIRV capability
FOBS orbital strikes
ICBM: 500
IRBM: 250
MRBM: 300
SRBM: 300
AI/Drone Systems
2M56% growth in 2024
World AI leader goal 2030
Swarm warfare ready
ESCALATION TIMELINE
2020
8 exercises
2 incidents
Baseline activity
2021
12 exercises
3 incidents
Increased patrols
2022
15 exercises
8 incidents
Pelosi visit response
2023
18 exercises
12 incidents
Joint Sword exercises
2024
22 exercises
18 incidents
Joint Sword 2024A & B
2025
25 exercises
20 incidents
Strait Thunder-2025A
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
$5.2 TRILLION
Taiwan conflict cost estimate
Semiconductor Disruption:
60% global supply
Global Recession:
85% probability
Trade Route Impact:
Major disruption
Immediate Effects:
Supply chain collapse
Market volatility surge
Semiconductor shortage crisis
Global inflation spike
RISK TIMELINE EVOLUTION
2025
25% Risk
Fight Tonight Window
2027
45% Risk
PLA Centenary Target
2030+
70% Risk
Global Parity Window
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
Russia
90%16 naval exercises
7 exercises in 2024
H-6N nuclear patrols
Cuba
75%SIGINT facilities
100 miles from Florida
US monitoring
Iran
65%Regional operations
Technology sharing
Middle East coordination
North Korea
80%Nuclear coordination
Intelligence sharing
Joint weapons testing